The Roles that Forecast Surprise and Forecast Error Play in Determining Management Forecast Precision
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
A General Forecast-error Taxonomy
We consider the sources of forecast errors and their consequences in an evolving economy subject to structural breaks,forecasting from mis-specified, data-based models. A model-free taxonomy of forecast errors highlights that deterministic shifts are a major cause of systematic forecast failure. Other sources seem to pose fewer problems. The taxonomy embeds several previous model-based taxonomi...
متن کاملDensity forecast revisions and forecast efficiency
We explain that revisions to successive density forecasts of the same outcome, as measured by the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion, need not be unpredictable, unlike those to conditional mean forecasts, even when the forecaster uses information efficiently. However one can still test the efficiency of fixed-event conditional density forecasts, similarly to conditional mean forecasts, by t...
متن کاملLearning to Play Limited Forecast Equilibria
This paper provides a learning justification for limited forecast equilibria, i.e., Ž . strategy profiles such that 1 players choose their actions in order to maximize the discounted average payoff over their horizon of foresight as given by their forecasts Ž . and 2 forecasts are correct on and off the equilibrium path. The limited forecast equilibria appear to be the stochastically stable out...
متن کاملforecast error analysis of state tax revenues in iran
in this paper, forecasting error for state tax revenues is assessed. for this purpose, using the regression equation, statistical index, and mean percent error, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and error analysis of tile inequality coefficients are applied on anticipated revenue from taxes on legal entities, income taxes, wealth tax, taxes on imports and taxes on consumption ...
متن کاملAdaptive Observation Strategies for Forecast Error Minimization
Using a scenario of multiple mobile observing platforms (UAVs) measuring weather variables in distributed regions of the Pacific, we are developing algorithms that will lead to improved forecasting of high-impact weather events. We combine technologies from the nonlinear weather prediction and planning/control communities to create a close link between model predictions and observed measurement...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Accounting Horizons
سال: 2010
ISSN: 0888-7993,1558-7975
DOI: 10.2308/acch.2010.24.2.165